This economic shift aligns with Rwanda's strategy to build a knowledge-based economy driven by industry and value-added exports. However, economists note that the declining share of agriculture raises questions about productivity, farmer incomes, food security, and poverty reduction efforts.
Between 2017 and 2025, Rwanda's GDP grew by an average of 7% annually. Industry experienced an average growth of 8.7%, services 7.9%, and agriculture 4.4% over the same timeframe. Agricultural economist Jules Ngango stated that a shrinking share of GDP for agriculture is not inherently negative, as it can signify the growing importance of other sectors.
Ngango emphasized that the critical factor is whether agriculture itself continues to grow and improve in productivity, even with slower expansion compared to other sectors. He suggested that attention should be directed towards enhancements in agricultural productivity, production, and value addition, alongside monitoring farmers' incomes to ensure improved livelihoods.
Economist Teddy Kaberuka highlighted that agriculture's importance extends beyond its GDP share, given the significant number of Rwandans who depend on it for their livelihoods. He pointed out that weak agricultural performance can impact household incomes and poverty reduction, and that the sector's role as a supplier of raw materials to industries like food processing is crucial.
Kaberuka also noted that while the expansion of services contributes to GDP growth, it is essential to consider who benefits from this growth. He argued that for GDP increases to translate into widespread improvements in living standards, the agriculture sector must continue to develop in parallel with industry and services.